Vietnam in global investment competitiveness
VIETNAM IN GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMPETITIVENESS
***
1
Le Thi Ngoc Bich*- Vu Thi Le Hoa**- Hoang Hai Ninh
ABSTRACT: Foreign direct investment (FDI) can benefit the host countries in many dimensions. However,
those benefits cannot be guaranteed without right policies. The study aims to provide to practical evidences
from investors’ view to assist policy makers in Vietnam in designing proper regulations in order to attract,
retain FDI as well as maximize its gains to economy. By employing the data from the Global Investment
Competitiveness Survey with interviews of 754 executive of multinational corporations with investment in
developing countries including Vietnam, the study gives insights into motivation and the factors impacting
investors’ decision in investing in and exiting from developing market. From the findings, various implications
are suggested for Vietnam government to improve further investment environment of country.
Keywords: foreign direct investment, policy, investment environment
1. INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE REVIEW
The benefits of foreign direct investment (FDI) to host countries can extend beyond physical capital
itself. To developing countries, FDI not only helps solving scarcity of physical capital, but it can potentially
transform economies through innovation, enhancing productivity, and creating employment. Due to its
advantages, countries all over the world, both developed and developing ones, are in the competition to
attract FDI by different measurement.
In recent years, although global economy have to face with severe crisis and economic recession,
Vietnam has still assessed as an attractive destination for investors. FDI rose steadily since 2009 and
reached a staggering $15.8 billion in 2016, according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI).
Manufacturing has remained the most popular industry for foreign investment. In next period, investors
will continue to find traditional export-oriented sectors such as electronics, garments, and footwear to be
attractive. In addition to the export-oriented sectors, the domestic market also provides an opportunity
for investors. With growing urbanization and rising incomes, industries such as education, real estate,
retail, food & beverages, e-commerce, and FMCG will continue to grow in 2018.
Vietnam’s success can be largely attributed to country’s geographical position near suppliers, the
growing consumer market and the state’s commitment to creating an attractive business environment for
both domestic and international companies. Building on the country’s solid foundations, the government
has introduced a number of regulatory changes to help increase both foreign direct investment (FDI) and
foreign portfolio investment. This pro-business attitude has also stimulated growth in the private sector,
driving local business and improving competition. In the coming years, the government will continue to
*
Le Thi Ngoc Bich, Academy of Finance, Hanoi, Vietnam.
**
Vu Thi Le Hoa, Academy of Finance, Hanoi, Vietnam.
*** Hoang Hai Ninh, Academy of Finance, Hanoi, Vietnam.
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invest in supply industries, advanced technologies and environmentally friendly practices in order to attract
foreign investment and strengthen the link with domestic enterprises further.
While many international investors have found Vietnam an attractive destination, there are still areas
in need of improvement. Problems include corruption and a weak legal infrastructure, inadequate training
and education systems combined with restrictive labor policies, conflicting limitations, and questions over
future access to reliable and afford energy. Investors have called for immediate reforms and the development
of sound economic policies in order for Vietnam to continue to attract high – quality, foreign investment.
Literature on FDI is numerous theoretically and empirically. Borensztein et al. (1998) employed the
data on FDI flows from industrial countries to 69 developing countries over the period 1970-1989 and found
that FDI is an important vehicle for the transfer of technology, contributing relatively more to growth than
domestic investment. Nevertheless, the higher productivity of FDI holds only when the host country has a
minimum threshold stock of human capital. Therefore, FDI contributes to economic growth only when a
sufficient absorptive capability of the advanced technologies is available in the host economy. Louzi and
Abadi (2011) study the FDI-led growth hypothesis in Jordan. Based on time series data from 1990 to 2009,
the econometric framework of integration and error correction mechanism is employed to capture two way
linkages between interested variables. The empirical results reveal that FDI inflows do not exert an independent
influence on economic growth, while domestic investment and trade liberalization have positive impacts
on GDP growth. Bahname (2012) studies the impact of FDI on economic growth in Southern Asia for the
period 1977 - 2009. The results reveal that FDI, along with other variables such as human capital, economic
infrastructure and capital formation have positive and significant effects on economic growth. Consistent with
the work of Bahname, Abdullahi et al. (2012) conclude that FDI promotes economic growth among selected
countries of Africa and Asia in the period 1990-2009 and thus, they recommend for more openness of the
economies, more investment in infrastructure and more political commitment to the fight against corruption.
The positive impacts of FDI on economic growth are also supported through many empirical studies (Ghatak
and Halicioglu, 2007; Lean and Tan, 2011; Alshehry, 2015; Adhikary, 2015).
Furthermore, there are some studies about the determinants of FDI. Hsieh (2005) used a dynamic
panel data model with fixed effect to analyze the locational determinants of FDI inflows in Southeast Asia
transition economies including Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, for the period of 1990 to 2003.
Various variables are included in the model including lagged FDI, Asia financial crisis indicator, exchange
rate, wages, GDP per capita, openness, government budget, and human capital investment. The most
important determinants are the one period lagged FDI inflows, GDP per capita, and the degree of openness.
The Asian financial crisis is found to have deterred FDI inflows in these countries. Nguyen Phuong Hoa
(2002) estimated a cross – sectional regression model for the locational determinants of accumulated FDI
to the year 2000 across provinces in Vietnam. She found that market size represented by provincial GDP,
human capital, GDP per capita and the number of industrial zones are important determinants of FDI across
provinces in Vietnam. Although her findings are quite consistent with the literature regarding market size,
labor quality and infrastructure, by including both GDP and GDP per capita in the model may have caused
the GDP per capita to have contradicting effect on the inflow of FDI.
About FDI policies in Vietnam, Nguyen Quynh Tho, Banking Academy of Vietnam, Vietnam (2016)
used Global Opportunity Index, Inward FDI Performance Index, and Inward FDI Potential Index in order
to evaluate the effectiveness of FDI policies. According to her, instead of focusing on policies towards
attracting more FDI, it is necessary for Vietnam to pay more attention on advanced levels of policies
towards FDI (i.e. upgrading FDI, enhancing linkages, and reducing FDI side effects).
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Although existing studies have provided different points of views on FDI, no study has given insights
from the perception of investors yet. Therefore, by using data set on the perception of high level managers
of companies who are directly involved in investment decision of companies to developing countries,
this study aims to provide a unique practical evidences on FDI in developing countries and Vietnam
particularly. When having better understanding from investors’ view, government will be able to design
proper regulations for attracting and retaining FDI as well as maximize its gains to economy.
The following parts include methodology and data description of the study, statistical analysis and
discussion and finally policy implication for Vietnam and conclusion.
2. METHODOLOGY AND DATA DESCRIPTION
• Methodology
Various analytical methods are used throughout the study with the support of SPSS software to
summarize and analyze the results of the survey. Descriptive analyses are used to determine the profile
of companies in terms of the location of head quarter, sector and size. To analyze motivation of investors,
factors influencing the investment decisions of investors and reasons for exiting from the market, descriptive
analysis of frequency and analyses of variance (ANOVA) are employed to summarize and compare the
perception of investors with affiliates in Vietnam and those in other countries and those in different sectors.
• Data description
The study employs the data of Global Investment Competitiveness (GIC) Survey 2017 which was
initiated by International Finance Corporation and World Bank from February to June 2017. The GIC
survey aims to collect the perception of key decision makers in companies across the world on the impact
of the investment climate factors in their investment decision overseas, especially in emerging markets and
developing countries. The survey interviewed business executives of multinational companies operating
in developing markets and involved in the company’s global expansion strategy and decision – making
process. The respondents, being a combination of executives at the global headquarters and executives at a
foreign affiliate, were interviewed by telephone.
The survey consists of four sections: (1) General information on the company and respondent; (2)
Importance of factors in investing in a developing country; (3) Political risks and investment exit; (4)
Investment in a specific developing country. The first section collects general information on company such as
sector, number of employees and position of the respondent in the company. Section 2 asks respondents to rate
the importance of investment climate factors on a scale from 1 to 4 which equivalent to “not at all important”
to “critically important”. Section 3 identifies the experience of political risks in developing countries and the
reasons for shutting down any foreign affiliate in a developing country. In section 4, the interviewees were
asked about the operation of a familiar affiliate in a specific developing country in difference perspectives.
The sample includes 754 respondents from companies operating in companies across the world. 30
out of 754 companies have affiliates in Vietnam, which could enable researchers to compare the opinions of
investors in Vietnam with those in other countries. The details on respondents in terms of different aspects
are presented in the Table 1. Accordingly, most of surveyed companies have the head quarter in developed
countries, accounting for 73.2%. The proportion of firms operating in manufacturing sector is 46.8% while
those in service sector are 44.6% and the primary sector is only 6.4%. Firms belong to different size groups.
The firms with from 251 to 1000 employees and from 1000 to 10000 account for over 25% of the total firms.
The remaining belong to the groups of less than 100 employees, from 100 to 250 and over 10000 employees.
HỘI THẢO KHOA HỌC QUỐC TẾ KHỞI NGHIỆP ĐỔI MỚI SÁNG TẠO QUỐC GIA
Table 1.The profile of respondents
588
Characteristics
Value
Frequency Percent
Cumulative percent
Developing
202
26.8
26.8
Income group of head
quarter country
Developed
Primary
552
48
73.2
6.4
100.0
6.4
Manufacturing
Services
353
46.8
53.2
336
17
44.6
2.3
97.7
100.0
1.7
Other
Sector
Don’t know/Refused
Less than 100 employees
100 to 250 employees
251 to 1000 employees
1001 to 10000 employees
More than 10000 employees
13
1.7
131
111
194
203
102
754
17.4
14.7
25.7
26.9
13.5
100.0
19.1
33.8
59.5
86.5
100.0
Number of employees
Total
3. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
3.1. Motivation of companies in investing in developing countries and application for Vietnam
Motivation of companies in investing in developing countries – analysis from survey
To attract and gain benefits from foreign direct investment, it is crucial for host countries to understand
the motives of different types of FDI. The survey listed five main motivation and asked the respondents
whether they are their company’ motivation in investing in a specific developing country. The listed
motivations include: access to new markets or new customers; lower production costs or establish a new
base for exports; coordinate your company’s value chain such as being closer to your suppliers; access to
natural resources and raw materials such as oil, gas or agricultural products and acquire another firm that
will provide your company new technologies or brands. Table 2 and figure 1 present the result of analysis
in terms of frequency for each motivation.
Table 2. Motivations in investing in developing countries
Motivation
Value Frequency Percentage
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
656
98
87.0
13.0
51.1
48.9
39.3
60.7
14.6
85.4
12.5
87.5
Access new markets or new customers
385
369
296
458
110
644
94
Lower production costs or establish a new base for exports
Coordinate your company’ value chain, such as being closer to your suppliers
Acquire another firm that will provide your company new technology
Access natural resources and raw materials, such as oil, gas or
660
It is noticeable that investors are heterogeneous with various motivation of investment. It means
different types of FDI have different motivation when seeking and investing in a specific country.
If multinational companies (MNCs) look for access to natural resources such as firms in extractive
industries, they will be motivated by availability of natural elements such as access to land and resources
INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE STARTUP AND INNOVATION NATION
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than other factors. The domestic market size are the priority of market – seeking FDI. The efficiency –
seeking FDI values the policies of the import – export goods and services and lower production costs.
Meanwhile, foreign investors seeking strategic assets are motivated by technology and brands that can
enhance their operation.
According to the survey, access to new markets or new customers is the most important motivation
of investors, with 87% of surveyed firms valuing this factor. The second most important motivation of
investment is to have lower production costs or establish a new base for exports, occurring for over the
half of respondent. Meanwhile, 39.3% of investors are motivated in investing by the coordination their
company’ value chain such as being closer to the suppliers. Few investors identify with the motivation to
acquire strategic assets (15 percent) or access natural resources and raw materials (12 percent). Importantly,
multiple motivations are chosen by two – third of investors and when asked about which motivation prevails,
most investors (71 percent) say they are market-seeking.
Motivation of investors in Vietnam
To check whether there is difference in motivation between investors in Vietnam and other developing
countries, analysis of variances (ANOVA) is employed. The result in table 3 reveals that there is no
difference in the trend of investors in Vietnam and other developing countries (Sig. value > 0.1). In other
words, different types of investors in Vietnam are motivated by various factors.
Table 3. ANOVA on the difference between motivation of investors in Vietnam and other developing countries
Sum of
Squares
.125
Mean
Square
.125
df
1
F
1.106
Sig.
.293
Access new markets or new
customers
Between Groups
Within Groups
Total
85.137
85.263
.250
752
753
1
.113
Lower production costs or
establish a new base for your
exports
Between Groups
Within Groups
Total
.250
.250
.998
1.511
.504
.318
.219
.478
188.165 752
188.415 753
Coordinate your company’s
value chain
Between Groups
Within Groups
Total
.361
1
.361
.239
179.438 752
179.798 753
Natural resources and raw
materials, such as oil, gas or
Between Groups
Within Groups
Total
.055
1
.055
.109
82.226
82.281
752
753
HỘI THẢO KHOA HỌC QUỐC TẾ KHỞI NGHIỆP ĐỔI MỚI SÁNG TẠO QUỐC GIA
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Acquire another firm that will Between Groups
.013
1
.013
.125
.108
.743
Within Groups
provide your company new
technology
93.939
93.952
752
753
Total
Most of investors value the motivation of accessing to the market or new customers in Vietnam. With relatively
large young population – over 90 million with increasing average income and about 60% of which is aged under
35, Vietnam’ sizeable marketplace have attracted growing interest of investors from Japan, South Korea and so
on. Moreover, Vietnam is an emerging market where domestic production and services are still at the beginning
of growth, the demand and requirement for quality of customers are getting higher, which enables international
investors to compete successfully in the market. However, it also implies that the motivation of accessing market
of international investors are likely to be a threat for domestic firms in Vietnam. With the advantages in capital,
management and technology, and less motivation of coordinating with local firms, international investors can easily
compete in the local market, which forces local firms to shut down their business.
3.2. The factors influencing the investment decision of companies in developing countries and application in Vietnam
Factors influencing the investment decision of companies in developing countries – analysis from survey
To attract investment flow, it is important to have an insight on the factors influencing the investment
decision of firms based on investors’ perception. When deciding to invest in a specific country, investors have
to consider a broad range of elements. Survey mentions ten factors which are probably decisive to investors’
decision and ask them to evaluate the importance of each element using likert scale from 1 to 4. The value
of 1 is for not at all important and 4 for critically important. Table 4 analyzes the mean value to compare the
importance of influencing elements. The bigger the mean values are, the more important of influencing factors
are. Meanwhile, figure 2 shows in detail the distribution of values in likert scale for each influencing factor.
Accordingly, the mean values in table 4 show that factors related to business environment are
evaluated highly in investors’ perception. Political stability and security is the most influential factor in
investment decision of firms in developing countries. Following that, business - friendly legal and regulatory
environment are the second most important factor influencing the investment decision of firms. Around
86% of respondents see the legal and regulatory evironement as an important of critically important factor
for investment decision.
Table 4. Characteristics impacting investment decision in developing countries
Characteristics
Obs
Mean
Std. Dev. Min Max
Political stability and security
748 3.364973 0.752828
749 3.252336 0.7251299
745 3.193289 0.8425563
746 3.091153 0.8320764
746 2.969169 0.8243695
749 2.903872 0.8314336
744 2.685484 0.8883902
747 2.609103 0.9115421
741 2.37247 0.9817238
740 2.352703 1.021385
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
Business - friendly legal and regulatory environment
Large domestic market size and potential
Macro - economic stability and favourability of exchange rate
Available talent and skill of labor
Good physical infrastructure, such as transportation and telecom
Low tax rates
Low cost of labor and other production inputs
Access to land and real estate
Availability of financing in the domestic market
Meanwhile, marketrelatedfactorsarelessinfluentialtoinvestmentdecisionofcompaniesindeveloping
countries. Large domestic market size and macro – economic stability and favourability of exchange rate
stand at the third and fourth positions out of ten elements surveyed, with the both value bigger than 3 in
INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE STARTUP AND INNOVATION NATION
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likert scale, meaning being important in investors’ evaluation, but not the most important factor according
to investors’ assessment. Factors related to inputs seems to not the priorities of investors when investing
in developing countries. Labor, physical infrastructure, low cost of labor, land access and other financial
incentives are rated lower in the investors’ view.
Factors influencing investment decision of investors in Vietnam
The ANOVA result in table 5 compares the difference in the perception of investors in Vietnam and
other developing countries on the factor influencing investment decision. The Sig. values indicate that
investors in Vietnam is indifferent in evaluating the importance of influential factors. In other words, for
investors in Vietnam, political and legal environment also play the most important role in attracting foreign
direct investment. Following that is the factors related to market and macro – economic conditions. This
result can explain for the increase of FDI flow into Vietnam in recent years. The introduction of new
regulatory frameworks has been key to attracting these high levels of foreign investment, and has helped
control inflation, motivate economic growth and stabilize the interest rate domestically.
The availability of talent and skill labor, not the cheap labor, together with infrastructure also play an
important role in attracting investment. Financial incentives and cheap cost production input, especially
low tax rate and low labor cost are not the most important factors investors searching for in developing
countries in Vietnam. It implies that the policy of cutting tax should not be seen as the most efficient tool to
attract investment in Vietnam and should be consider carefully by government because it can cause deficit
for state budget and encourage foreign investors to exploit this policy to avoid taxes. Regarding to human
resource, cheap labor cost is not a strength for Vietnam in attracting investment anymore when investors
are searching for the talent and skill.
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Table 5.ANOVA on the difference between factors influencing investment decision of investors in Vietnam
and other developing countries
Sum of
Squares
.724
Mean
Square
.724
df
1
F
Sig.
Large domestic market
size and potential
Between Groups
Within Groups
Total
.294
.588
1849.557
1850.281
.908
752
753
1
2.460
Macro-economic stability Between Groups
.908
.408
.814
.523
.367
and favourability of
exchange rate
Within Groups
Total
1672.052
1672.960
1.682
752
753
1
2.223
Low cost of labor and
other production inputs
Between Groups
Within Groups
Total
1.682
2.065
1552.817
1554.499
.056
752
753
1
Available talent and skill Between Groups
.056
.025
.108
.873
.742
of labor
Within Groups
1640.163
1640.219
.176
752
753
1
2.181
Total
Between Groups
Good physical
.176
infrastructure, such as
transport and telecom
Within Groups
Total
1220.715
1220.891
1.131
752
753
1
1.623
Access to land or real
estate
Between Groups
Within Groups
Total
1.131
3.144
.360
.231
.490
1.977
.188
.549
.631
.484
.160
.664
2364.409
2365.540
.781
752
753
1
Availability of financing
in the domestic market
Between Groups
Within Groups
Total
.781
2541.035
2541.816
.869
752
753
1
3.379
Political stability and
security
Between Groups
Within Groups
Total
.869
1332.549
1333.418
5.070
752
753
1
1.772
Low tax rates
Between Groups
Within Groups
5.070
2.565
1928.729
1933.798
.285
752
753
1
Total
Business-friendly
legal and regulatory
environment
Between Groups
Within Groups
.285
1138.644
752
1.514
Total
1138.930
753
3.3. Reasons for investment exit in developing countries and application for Vietnam
This part analyzes and discusses about the final stage in investment life cycle - divestment. In the
survey, 219 respondents, who are from firms having had investment exit, were asked to choose the main
reasons for closing down their foreign affiliates amongst 11 listed reasons, both subjective and objective
ones. Table 6 presents the analysis on the participants’ responses. The largest percentage of choice belongs
to the subjective reason – change in company’s strategy and management priorities- which accounts for
13.1% of the total number of exiting firms. Besides the main reason coming from companies themselves,
INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE STARTUP AND INNOVATION NATION
593
other most important reasons of investment exit come from economic and regulatory conditions of host
countries, namely “unstable macroeconomic conditions or unfavorable exchange rate” and “increased
policy or regulatory uncertainty. Among mentioned reasons, it is noticeable that factors related to inputs
and tax incentives have impact on the decision of investment exit of firms on smaller percentage of firms
comparing with macro - economic and legal elements.
Table 6: Reasons for investment exit in developing countries
Reasons for exit
Total number Frequency
Percentage
10
12
1.3
Withdrawal of tax incentives
219
219
1.6
Sudden restrictions on hiring expatriate staff
Expropriation or taking of your property or assets by the
government
18
2.4
219
219
219
219
219
219
219
22
36
38
50
64
70
2.9
4.8
5.0
6.6
8.5
9.3
Increase in cost of local labor and raw materials
Sudden restrictions on transfer and convertibility of currency
Breach of contract by the government
Non-transparent or arbitrary government conduct
Global economic downturn
Increased policy or regulatory uncertainty
Unstable macroeconomic conditions or unfavourable exchange
rate
90
99
11.9
13.1
219
219
Change in your company’s strategy and management priorities
4. POLICY IMPLICATION FOR VIETNAM AND CONCLUSION
Firstly, the finding of study suggested that different types of FDI have heterogeneous motivations in
investing in developing countries and Vietnam particularly, some types are likely to bring advantages to
host country while others can be threat to local firms as well as environment. To gain benefits from FDI flow
and minimize threat for local firms, government should design proper regulatory framework for each type
of FDI to encourage foreign capital pour into high – tech sectors in order to boost domestic technology and
improve weakness of economy without harming existing domestic production. These results reinforce the
need for targeted policy approaches by government, keeping in mind the specific types of FDI they wish
to attract, retain, and harness for development. FDI should not be attracted at any cost. One of the most
important aims host countries should notice when encouraging FDI is to enhance capacity of local firms
by spillover effects. Therefore, there should be policies to supporting local firms in improving production
capacity to be able to corporate with international firms and be part of global value chain.
Secondly, it is found that investors are influenced by different factors in deciding investment in
Vietnam. Amongst various factors mentioned, factors related to political stability and security as well as
business – friendly legal and regulatory environment are ranked the first and second orders in importance.
These elements are also the main reason for investment exit of investors besides strategy – related factors of
firms themselves and market downturn. Although Vietnam government has achieved remarkable outcomes
in improving investment environment to make Vietnam become an attractive destination for international
investors recently, there are still many points should be improved further. Moreover, government should be
careful when implementing tax incentives for international investors because it seems not to be a decisive
factor comparing with other elements, but it can be a factor for investors to exploit for price transfer among
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countries. With the rapid development of technology, it is obvious that elements such as natural resources
or cheap labor are not the strength of Vietnam anymore. Improvement of human capital should be paid
attention, focus on talent and skill of labor.
The analysis on investment exit suggested that addressing policy reforms to attract FDI and offering
aftercare services are equally important. Policy makers tend to focus on attracting FDI through investment
incentives, facilitation, and proactive investment promotion. While these are important, investors say that
investment protection is even more critical to them, suggesting that government efforts should also aim to
encourage investors to stay in the country and expand their operations. Policy initiatives should include
strengthening investor protection guarantees, providing proactive investor aftercare, managing grievances,
and promoting linkages.
The study provided insights into FDI in Vietnam from perception of investors which is a new point
comparing with previous studies and gave some suggestions for Vietnam government to boost country
benefits from outside investment flow. However, many shortcomings still remain which are need to be
solved in future studies.
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